Guatemala GDP Q4 2015


Economy inches down in Q4

In Q4 2015, the economy expanded 3.8% over the same period of the previous year. The expansion marked a slight deceleration compared to the 3.9% increase tallied in Q3. The slowdown was mainly driven by weaker investment and total consumption growth.

Private consumption growth was robust, however, it did decelerate to 5.5% from Q3’s expansion (Q3: +6.2% year-on-year). Fixed investment, meanwhile, slowed to a 2.5% increase from a 7.6% increase in Q3. Government consumption fell by 2.6%, which marked the lowest reading since December 2004 and came in below Q3’s 2.4% contraction.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services recorded flat growth Q4, which followed Q3’s 3.0% increase, and marked the lowest figure in three-and-a-half years. Import growth fell from a 12.7% increase in Q3 to 9.2% in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 4.0 percentage points in Q3 to minus 3.1 percentage points in Q4.

Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.5% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.6%.

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Guatemala GDP Chart

Guatemala GDP Q415

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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