Greece GDP Q4 2015


Greece's economy returns to recession in Q4

At the end of a year defined by political uncertainty, “Grexit” fears and tense bailout negotiations, Greece’s economy returned to recession in the fourth quarter. The economy fell 2.0% over the same period of the previous year, according to an advance estimate released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) on 12 February. The result marks a deterioration from the revised 1.7% fall recorded in Q3 (previously reported: -0.9% year-on-year) and is the worst result since Q4 2013. In addition, the figure is worse than FocusEconomics panelists’ projection of a 1.4% contraction.

On a quarterly basis, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2015 in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was an improvement from the revised 1.4% fall recorded in Q3 (previously reported: -0.9% quarter-on-quarter). For the full year 2015, the economy likely fell 0.6%, which contrasted 2014’s 0.7% expansion. The statistical institute will release more detailed data on 29 February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy falling 0.5% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points over last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects GDP to decline 1.6%.

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Greece GDP Chart

Greece GDP Q4 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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