France Inflation October 2022

France

France: Harmonized inflation comes in at series high in October

October 28, 2022

Harmonized inflation came in at 7.1% in October, up from September’s 6.2%. October's figure represented a series high. The print was likely driven by rapid increases in energy prices. Although subsidies remained in place in October, fuel prices were affected by shortages caused by strikes in oil refineries and depots.

The trend pointed up, with annual average harmonized inflation coming in at 5.3% in October (September: 5.0%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose to 6.2% in October, from September’s 5.6%. Lastly, harmonized consumer prices increased 1.27% in October over the previous month, contrasting the 0.51% drop seen in September. October's jump marked the highest reading since March.

Commenting on the outlook, Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING, noted:

“Inflation [is] expected to fall in 2023, but more slowly than elsewhere. For 2023, the evolution of inflation will depend on several factors: the public policies put in place to limit the rise in energy prices, the price of energy and raw materials on the international markets, the value of the euro against the dollar, and finally the speed of transmission of cost increases to consumer sales prices.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project harmonized inflation to average 4.5% in 2023, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.0% in 2024.


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France Inflation October 2022 0

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).


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