France GDP


Revised data confirm exit from recession

GDP rose 0.5% in the second quarter over the previous three-month period according to revised data. The increase matched the initial estimate and contrasted the revised 0.1% drop recorded in Q1 (previously: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter). As a result, the economy has exited the technical recession it entered into after two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP.

The second quarter improvement was seen across the board. Private consumption increased 0.4% over the previous quarter (Q1: -0.1% quarter-on-quarter) and the pace of expansion in government spending accelerated from 0.3% in Q1 to 0.7% in Q2. Fixed investment, however, decreased 0.4% in Q2, albeit less sharply than the 1.0% decline tallied in Q1.

Meanwhile, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from a 0.2 percentage-point detraction in the first quarter to zero contribution in the second quarter. Exports of goods and services increased 2.0% in Q2 (Q1: -0.5% qoq), while imports rose 1.7% (Q1: +0.1% qoq).

The government expects the economy to expand 0.1% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 0.1% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, panelists anticipate economic growth to inch up to 0.8%.


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France GDP Chart

France GDP Q3 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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