Egypt GDP Q4 2015


Egypt: GDP growth picks up in October-December period

April 15, 2016

According to preliminary data, GDP increased an annual 4.0% in the October-December period (which is Q4 of calendar year 2015 and Q2 of Egypt’s 2016 fiscal year). Q4’s result marked an uptick compared to the 3.0% increase tallied in Q3. Q4’s improvement was mainly driven by the fact that exports performed better than in Q3, when they recorded a drastic contraction. Meanwhile, all components of domestic demand grew at a softer pace in Q4 than in Q3.

On the domestic side, private consumption expanded 2.1% in Q4, which followed the 4.2% expansion in Q3. Government consumption growth decelerated to 3.0% in Q4 (Q3: +5.7% year-on-year). Gross investment slowed from an 8.7% rise in Q3 to a 4.4% expansion in Q4. On the external side, exports rebounded from Q3’s massive 25.6% contraction to a modest 2.4% increase in Q4. At the same time, the contraction in imports softened from 6.8% in Q3 to 3.7% in Q4.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3% in fiscal year 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2017, the panel sees economic growth at 3.9%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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