Czech Republic GDP Q4 2015

Czech Republic

Czech Republic: Czech economy slows somewhat in Q4; full-year 2015 growth buoyant

March 4, 2016

In Q4, the economy expanded a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted 4.0% over the same quarter of the previous year, according to more complete data released by the Czech Statistical Office (CZO) on 4 March. The reading slightly beat the flash estimate of 3.9%, but marked a slowdown compared to Q3’s strong 4.7% expansion. Q4’s still-robust increase was supported by healthy gains in all components of GDP. However, slower increases in investment and, to a lesser extent, public and private consumption partly offset an improved performance of the external sector, causing the overall pace to moderate compared to Q3. In the full-year 2015, GDP recorded an outstanding 4.3% expansion, which was the largest gain in eight years (2014: +2.0% year-on-year).

In Q4, private consumption rose 2.9% in annual terms, coming in marginally below the 3.0% increase observed in Q3. Government spending decelerated from a 4.7% rise in the third quarter, which was the largest reading since Q4 2003, to a 3.9% increase in the fourth quarter. Fixed investment growth slowed from Q3’s 9.7% to 7.9% in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services quickened slightly from a 7.1% increase in Q3 to a 7.2% rise in Q4. Imports decelerated, slowing from a 7.9% increase in the third quarter to a 7.0% rise in the fourth quarter. Consequently, the net contribution from the external sector swung from minus 0.2 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.6 percentage points in Q4.

On a sequential basis, GDP shrank a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s 0.7% increase.

The Czech National Bank expects the economy to expand 2.7% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.6% in 2016, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 2.7%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Czech Republic GDP Chart

Czech Republic GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Czech Statistical Office (CSO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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