China Trade July 2016


Contraction in exports eases in July

Exports fell 4.4% annually in July, which marked a more moderate contraction than both the 4.8% drop recorded in June and the 4.7% contraction the markets had expected.

Meanwhile, imports plunged 12.5% annually in July, which marked a faster decrease than both the 8.4% contraction tallied in June and the 11.2% decline that market analysts had expected.

Due to the slower contraction in exports, the trade surplus improved from USD 41.9 billion in July 2015 to USD 52.3 billion in July this year. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus increased from June’s USD 602 billion to USD 612 billion in July, which marked an all-time high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will contract 2.3% in 2016, while imports will decrease 4.5%, driving the trade balance to a surplus of USD 622 billion. For 2017, the panel expects exports to increase 2.1% and imports to rise 1.5%, while the trade surplus will widen further to USD 644 billion.

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China Trade Chart

China Trade12m July 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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