China Trade Balance


Trade balance improves in June

In June, exports increased 7.2% over the same month last year, which was a tad above the 7.0% increase recorded in May. The print undershot the 10.4% that market analysts had expected but represented the largest gain in five months.

Imports expanded 5.5% annually in June, which contrasted the 1.6% drop recorded in May. The increase fell short of the 6.0% expansion that market analysts had expected but represented the largest increase in four months.

The trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 31.6 billion in June (May: USD 35.9 billion surplus), which was above the USD 27.1 billion surplus recorded in the same month last year. The print undershot market expectations of a USD 36.9 billion surplus. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus rose from USD 250 billion in May to USD 255 billion in June.

The government set the growth target for the total volume of exports and imports at 7.5% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 8.1% in 2014 (USD 2.4 trillion) and they see the trade surplus reaching USD 270 billion. For 2015, the panel expects exports to increase 9.1% and the trade surplus to widen to USD 282 billion.

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China Trade Balance Chart

China Trade12m June 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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