China Trade Balance


External sector improves markedly in October

In October, exports rose 5.6% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 0.3% drop seen in September and overshot market analysts' expectations of a 1.7% increase. According to analysts, the healthy expansion seen in October suggests a mild turnaround in global demand.

Imports expanded 7.6% in October, which marks an acceleration over the 7.4% rise tallied in September. The increase came in above market expectations of a 7.4% increase.

The trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 31.1 billion, which was virtually unchanged from the USD 32.1 billion surplus recorded in in the same month last year. The October balance overshot market expectations of a USD 24.8 billion surplus. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus, however, fell slightly, from USD 254 billion in September to USD 253 billion in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 8.5% in 2013 (USD 2.2 trillion), while the trade surplus will widen to USD 263 billion, which is up from USD 231 billion in 2012. For 2014, the panel expects exports to increase 8.4% and the trade surplus to remain broadly stable at USD 268 billion.

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China Trade Balance Chart

China Trade12m October 2013

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