China Money October 2016

China

China: Money growth inches up to four-month high in October

Chinese banks extended CNY 651 billion (USD 95.5 billion) in new yuan loans in October, which marked a sharp slowdown from September’s CNY 1.22 trillion. October’s print slightly undershot the CNY 672 billion the markets had expected. In the 12 months up to October, new yuan loans totaled CNY 12.1 trillion (September: CNY 12.0 trillion).

Total social financing (TSF)—a broader measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—declined from September’s six-month high of 1.72 trillion to CNY 896 billion in October. The print came in below the CNY 1.0 trillion the markets had expected.

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—rose from September’s 11.5% to 11.6% in October. The reading came in slightly above the 11.4% rise the markets had expected and represented a four-month high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 12.0% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2017, the panel sees M2 growth of 11.4%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


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China Money October 2016

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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