China Inflation


Inflation moderates in September

In September, consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month, which was down from the 0.5% increase tallied in August. The monthly reading mainly reflected lower prices for food and energy.

Inflation moderated from 2.0% in August to 1.6% in September. The print fell short of the 1.8% that market analysts had expected. Despite the moderation, the trend remained stable in September, with annual average inflation remaining at the previous two months’ 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 5.9% in September over the same month last year, which mirrored August’s reading. The print matched market expectations and marked the lowest level since September 2009. The annual average variation of the producer price index decreased from minus 4.1% in August to minus 4.4% in September, which represented the lowest value since January 2010.

The government set an inflation target of 3.0% for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation edging up to 2.0%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer prices to decline 4.1% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see producer prices falling 1.3%.

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China Inflation Chart

China Inflation September 2015

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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