China Inflation


Inflation declines in November

Consumer prices expanded 3.0% over the same month last year in November. The print came in below the 3.2% increase tallied in October and undershot the 3.1% rise that markets had expected. The slight deceleration mainly reflected lower prices for food - in particular for fresh vegetables. Nevertheless, the trend moved upward in November, with annual average inflation inching up from 2.5% in October to 2.6% in November.

Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 1.4% in November over the same month last year (October: -1.5% year-on-year), which was just a tick below the 1.5% drop that market analysts had expected. The annual average variation of the producer price index rose from minus 2.0% in October to minus 1.9% in November and reached a 10-month high.

The government expects that inflation will average 3.5% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 2.7% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel sees inflation rising to 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast.

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China Inflation Chart

China Inflation November 2013

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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