China Industry June 2016


Growth in industrial production virtually stabilizes in July

In July, industrial production expanded 6.0% over the same month of last year. The print fell short of the 6.2% rise tallied in June and was in line with market expectations. July’s reading reflected a mild slowdown in manufacturing production, while the expansion in electricity, gas and water supply activities was faster in July than in the previous month. Conversely, the pace of decline in the mining sub-component accelerated.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.52% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, which was broadly in line with the 0.50% increase tallied in June. The trend had followed an uninterrupted downward trajectory since late 2013, yet it now seems to be towards stabilization. Annual average growth in industrial production remained stable at June’s 5.9% in July.

For 2016, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 5.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production growth falling to 5.3%.

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China Industry Chart

China Industry July 2016

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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