Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

Recent data shows that annual economic growth eased in Q1, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and export momentum all softening. Moreover, activity contracted on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Turning to Q2, the economy shrank in month-on-month terms in April. However, this was purely due to weaker mining output, as non-mining activity expanded. In particular, consumer spending was robust—notwithstanding surging inflation and interest rates—with the reduced incidence of Covid-19 cases likely playing a role. Meanwhile, business sentiment averaged lower in April–May relative to Q1, hinting at more subdued investment. In politics, in mid-May the constituent assembly finished drafting the new constitution. The text enhances the role of the state, but should broadly safeguard Central Bank independence and private mining rights. A referendum on the document is set for 4 September.

Chile Economic Growth

GDP growth will slow notably in 2022 amid high inflation and interest rates, and weak investment due to political uncertainty. New Covid-19 variants, lockdowns in key export market China, potential flare-ups in social unrest if the new constitution is rejected, political violence in the south and the government’s weak parliamentary base are factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, GDP is seen expanding 0.9%.

Chile Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)18.018.218.418.819.1
GDP per capita (USD)13,68213,79315,08615,91514,766
GDP (USD bn)246251278298282
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.31.71.23.91.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.12.73.43.71.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.3-1.3-3.14.84.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.13.84.34.41.6
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.67.47.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-2.7-2.8-1.7-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.321.023.625.627.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.610.14.79.48.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.42.72.32.63.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.43.82.22.42.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.502.502.751.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.6-2.815.140.2-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)708.6669.8615.4694.0752.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)654.6676.5648.9642.1703.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-2.0-2.3-3.6-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-5.0-6.4-10.6-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.44.97.44.64.2
Exports (USD billion)62.060.768.875.269.9
Imports (USD billion)58.655.961.570.665.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.3-2.113.39.3-7.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.6-4.710.114.8-6.9
International Reserves (USD)38.640.539.039.940.7
External Debt (% of GDP)65.465.864.961.870.2

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Chile Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.14-0.44 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate752.00.05 %Jan 01

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