Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

September 14, 2021

The economy performed strongly in Q2, with GDP surging in annual terms and also recording a solid quarter-on-quarter expansion, aided by large fiscal stimulus, pension drawdowns, and firms and consumers being better adapted to lockdown measures. The year-on-year reading was the result of a broad-based improvement in private consumption, public spending and fixed investment. Turning to Q3, available signs are positive amid the loosening of Covid-19 restrictions. In July, economic activity growth was robust, the unemployment rate fell and consumer confidence surged, while business sentiment rose sharply through August. In other news, Congress is currently considering allowing citizens to withdraw a fourth tranche of their pension savings. While this would further fuel domestic demand in the near term, it could have negative implications for financial stability.

Chile Economic Growth

The economy should recover rapidly this year, spurred by fiscal largesse, increased copper demand and the gradual removal of restrictions at home and abroad. However, new Covid-19 strains, labor disputes in the mining sector, and uncertainty over November’s general elections and the constituent process all cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 9.0% in 2021, which is up 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, GDP is seen expanding 3.0%.

Chile Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)18.018.218.418.819.1
GDP per capita (USD)13,68213,79315,08615,91514,766
GDP (USD bn)246251278298282
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.31.71.23.91.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.12.73.43.71.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.3-1.3-3.14.84.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.13.84.34.41.6
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.67.47.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-2.7-2.8-1.7-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.321.023.625.627.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.610.14.79.48.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.42.72.32.63.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.43.82.22.42.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.502.502.751.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.6-2.815.140.2-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)708.6669.8615.4694.0752.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)654.6676.5648.9642.1703.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-2.0-2.3-3.6-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-5.0-6.4-10.6-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.44.97.44.64.2
Exports (USD billion)62.060.768.875.269.9
Imports (USD billion)58.655.961.570.665.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.3-2.113.39.3-7.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.6-4.710.114.8-6.9
International Reserves (USD)38.640.539.039.940.7
External Debt (% of GDP)65.465.864.961.870.2

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Chile Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.14-0.44 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate752.00.05 %Jan 01

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