Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

March 14, 2017

Chile’s economic panorama over the last month has been dominated by the ongoing strike over pay and conditions at the country’s largest mine, with talks between workers and BHP Billiton, the mine’s operator, still at an impasse. The strike has halted all activity at the mine since 9 February, causing a significant dent in the country’s copper exports, the mainstay of the economy. The country’s treasury minister recently announced that economic activity in February is likely to have taken a large hit as a result, reversing the upward trend in the growth rate of the monthly economic activity indicator observed in recent months. This bad news comes amid an already gloomy economic environment, with business and consumer confidence remaining stuck in negative territory in February and growth in the final quarter of last year likely to have been meagre as a result of subdued investment.

Chile Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)17.317.417.617.818.0
GDP per capita (USD)14,66215,19115,71014,59113,440
GDP (USD bn)253265277260242
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.85.54.01.92.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.96.15.52.41.5
Investment (annual variation in %)15.011.62.2-4.2-1.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.02.20.2-1.2-0.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.27.15.22.83.0
Unemployment Rate7.26.56.06.36.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.6-0.6-1.6-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.112.012.815.117.5
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.010.98.79.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.41.53.04.64.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.33.01.84.44.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.22.1-0.8-5.4-9.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.255.004.503.003.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)26.5-8.18.4-22.89.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)519.5478.7525.5606.9708.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)483.7486.3495.6570.8654.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.2-3.5-3.7-1.3-2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.1-9.4-10.3-3.3-4.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.02.31.76.33.5
Exports (USD billion)81.477.876.474.962.2
Imports (USD billion)70.475.574.768.658.7
Exports (annual variation in %)14.5-4.5-1.8-1.9-16.9
Imports (annual variation in %)27.67.2-1.0-8.2-14.3
International Reserves (USD)42.041.641.140.438.6
External Debt (% of GDP)39.345.548.657.664.3

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Chile Economic Growth

March 14, 2017

Growth should increase slightly this year thanks to higher copper prices, while the Central Bank’s looser monetary policy stance should also help prop up the economy. However, continuing subdued consumer and business confidence mean growth will remain modest. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see Chile’s economy expanding 1.9% this year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel predicts growth of 2.5% for 2018.

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