Bulgaria GDP Q2 2016


Economy accelerates slightly in Q2

Revised data released on 5 September confirmed that the economy expanded 3.0% over the same period last year in Q2. The print came in slightly above the 2.9% increase in the previous quarter. Q2’s result mainly came on the back of an expansion in total consumption, which partly offset a deceleration in fixed investment.

Total consumption recorded a 1.8% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +2.1% year-on-year). Private consumption grew 3.2% (Q1: +3.7% year-on-year) while government consumption shrank 3.2% (Q1: -4.4% year-on-year). Fixed investment worsened from a 3.9% contraction in Q1 to a 4.4% decrease in Q2, which marked the steepest fall since Q2 2011.

On the external side of the economy, exports improved from a 0.3% expansion in Q1 to a 2.4% increase in Q2. Imports swung from a 1.3% decrease in Q1 to a 3.4% increase in Q2. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to economic growth declined from +1.0 percentage point in Q1 to minus 0.7 percentage points in Q2, which was the worst result since Q4 2014.

The Ministry of Finance expects the economy to expand 2.1% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 2.6% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2017, panelists see the economy growing 2.8%.

Author:, Economist

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Bulgaria GDP Chart

Bulgaria GDP Q2 2016 2

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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