Bulgaria GDP Q4 2015


Economy accelerates in Q4 2015

In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded 3.0% over the same period of the previous year, according to revised data released on 8 March. The print, which was revised down slightly from the 3.1% increase previously reported, was up from the 2.9% expansion tallied in the previous quarter and marked the fastest reading in five years. Q4’s result came on the back of a significant improvement in total consumption and fixed investment. Moreover, the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria released a preliminary GDP result for 2015 as whole. According to the Institute, the GDP increased 3.0% in 2015.

Total consumption recorded a 2.7% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +1.0% year-on-year), supported by a substantial acceleration in both private consumption and government spending. Fixed investment rebounded from a 0.4% drop in Q3 to a 1.7% rise in Q4 and thus grew at the fastest rate in over a year.

On the external side of the economy, exports decelerated from a 5.8% expansion in Q3 to 4.2% rise in Q4, which marked the slowest increase in a year. Imports were up from a 3.3% increase in Q3 to a 3.4% rise in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to the economy fell from plus 1.5 percentage points in Q3 to just 0.5 percentage points in Q4.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus. In 2017, panelists see the economy growing 2.1%.

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Bulgaria GDP Chart

Bulgaria GDP Q4 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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