Bulgaria GDP Q4 2015


Bulgaria: Economy accelerates in Q4

February 12, 2016

In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded 3.1% over the same period last year, according to preliminary data released on 12 February. The print overshot the 2.9% expansion tallied in the previous quarter and marked the strongest reading in almost five years. Q4’s result came on the back of a significant improvement in total consumption and fixed investment, which more than upset a downturn in the external sector’s contribution.

Private consumption recorded a 2.5% expansion in Q4 (Q3: 1.0% year-on-year). Fixed investment rebounded from a 0.4% drop in Q3 to a 1.4% rise in Q4, thus growing at the fastest rate in over a year.

On the external side of the economy, exports decelerated from a 5.8% expansion in Q3 to a mild 0.7% rise in Q4. Imports slowed from a 3.3% increase in Q3 to a 1.7% rise in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to the economy swung from plus 1.4 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.7 percentage points in Q4, which marked the worst reading in a year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus. In 2017, panelists see the economy growing 2.1%.

Author:, Economist

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Bulgaria GDP Chart

Bulgaria GDP Q4 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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