Brazil Retail July 2016


Retail sales contract in July

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell back to contraction in July, declining 0.3% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The result contrasted June’s revised 0.3% expansion (previously reported: -0.3% month-on-month). Broad-based declines were recorded across the index, with seven of the eight components recording contractions.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 5.3% in July, which was a steeper fall than June’s 4.8% contraction. The trend continued to point down as annual average variation in retail sales inched down from minus 6.6% to minus 6.8%.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 4.8% in 2016, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees retail sales growing 0.8%.

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail July 2016 1

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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