Brazil GDP


Economic growth slower-than-expected in the first quarter

In the first quarter, GDP increased 0.6% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms. The figure mirrored the result observed in the fourth quarter and came in marginally below last month's LatinFocus Consensus Forecast of a 0.7% rise. Compared to the same quarter last year, the economy added 1.9%, up from the 1.4% increase tallied in Q4.

On the domestic side, private consumption added a meagre 0.1% over the previous quarter (Q4 2012: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter), while government consumption growth was flat in the first quarter (Q4: +0.6% qoq). Fixed investment, on the other hand, accelerated from a 1.3% expansion in the fourth quarter to a 4.6% rise in the first.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services fell 6.4% (Q4: +6.1% qoq), whereas imports grew 6.3%, below the 8.4% expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2012.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2013, according to its Inflation Report from March. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to also expand 3.1% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees GDP growth accelerating to 3.6%.


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Brazil GDP Chart

Brazil GDP Q1 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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