Brazil Economic Activity July 2016


Economic activity swings back to contraction in July

In July, economic activity contracted 0.1% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central). The result contrasted June’s revised 0.4% expansion (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month). The result was below market analysts’ expectations of a 0.2% expansion.

On an annual basis, economic activity fell 5.2%, which was a stark deterioration compared to June’s 2.9% fall. Meanwhile, the trend stabilized and the annual average variation in economic activity came in at June’s minus 5.6%, a multi-year low.

The analysts surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to contract 3.2% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel of analysts sees GDP rising 1.0%.

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Brazil Economic Activity Chart

Brazil Economic Activity July 2016

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

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