Belarus GDP Q4 2015


Belarus: Economy contracts sharply in Q4

March 30, 2016

In Q4, the economy contracted a notable 4.2% over the same quarter of the previous year, according to data released by the National Statistical Committee (Belstat) on 30 March (Q3: -4.4% year-on-year). The reading came on the back of a sharp decline in domestic demand which more than offset a notable improvement in the external sector.

Private consumption in Q4 fell 1.8% in annual terms, which marked an improvement from Q3’s 3.4% decline. Government spending swung from a 1.0% expansion in the third quarter to a 0.7% decline in the last quarter of the year. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted 18.3%, which was a deterioration from Q3’s 15.3% contraction.

The Statistical Institute did not release a detailed breakdown of the components of the external sector in Q4. However, Belstat did communicate that the external sector’s contribution to growth improved from 3.8 percentage points in Q3 to 9.8 percentage points in Q4—the highest reading since Q1 2012.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 1.0% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.5%.

Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Belarus GDP Chart

Belarus GDP Q4 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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