Argentina Inflation January 2016


Buenos Aires inflation jumps in January

Consumer prices in January increased 4.1% over the previous month, according to the inflation index elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) covering the province of Buenos Aires. The reading came in above the 3.9% rise seen in the previous month and marked the fastest increase in nearly two years. In January, inflation in the Buenos Aires province was 29.6%. The figure was up from the 26.9% increase observed in the previous month and marked the highest reading in nearly a year.

As part of the overhaul, Argentina’s new government has recently reformed the country’s statistical office by changing the staff. The INDEC has announced that official figures of the national consumer prices index will not be available until later this year. As a result, in the meanwhile, the statistical office is reporting two provincial statistics (Buenos Aires and San Luis) as a proxy to estimate the change in consumer prices.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect official inflation of 29.1% at the end of 2016, which is up 1.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists estimate that official inflation will end 2017 at 18.8%. The panel expects non-official inflation of 32.6% in 2016. Analysts see non-official inflation increasing to 19.5% in 2017.

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