Argentina Inflation December 2015


Buenos Aires inflation jumps in December

Consumer prices in October increased 1.1% over the previous month, according to the inflation index elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC). The reading came in slightly below the 1.2% increase seen in September and marked a four-month low. The figure was driven by higher prices for food and beverages as well as for transport. Inflation inched down from 14.5% in September to 14.3% in October, thus hitting the lowest rate since December 2013.

As part of the overhaul, Argentina’s new government has recently reformed the country’s statistical office by changing the staff and the methodology. The INDEC has announced that official figures of the national consumer prices index will not be available until September of this year. As a result, in the meanwhile, the statistical office is reporting two provincial statistics (Buenos Aires and San Luis) as a proxy to estimate the change in consumer prices.

Provisional data show that in December, inflation in the Buenos Aires province recorded 26.9%. The figure was up from the 23.9% increase observed in the previous month and marked the highest reading in eight months.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect official inflation of 29.1% at the end of 2016, which is up 1.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists estimate that official inflation will end 2017 at 18.8%. The panel expects non-official inflation of 32.6% in 2016. Analysts see non-official inflation increasing to 19.5% in 2017.

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