Argentina Economic Activity July 2016

Argentina

Argentina: Drop in economic activity steepens in July

In July, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) declined 5.9% year-on-year, which was below the 4.7% fall in June and represented the steepest contraction since July 2009. The print undershot the 4.0% drop that market analysts had expected.

Sequential data corroborate that the economy remains in a serious downturn. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity declined 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, which followed June’s 0.2% decline.

On average, in the 12 months up to July, economic activity decreased 0.2%, which was below June’s 0.6% increase and marked the weakest growth rate in a year.

The Statistical Institute relaunched the economic activity indicator series in August following an eight-month hiatus as statistical data had come under heavy criticism under the previous administration.

FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to contract 1.2% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to accelerate significantly and expand 3.0%.


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Argentina Economic Activity July 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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