FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
December 2, 2014
On 17 November, Indonesia’s new President, Joko Widodo, announced that the price of government subsidized fuel would be raised by more than 30%. In addition to fulfilling his election promise to reduce government spending, the move also suggests that Widodo is serious about implementing economic reforms that are crucial for the country’s long term growth, even if they are unpopular and may limit short-term economic activity. The price hike is designed to relieve pressure on government finances, narrow the current account deficit through reduced fuel imports, and provide funds for much-needed infrastructure and social spending.
November 20, 2014
On 9 November, Catalonia held a “consultation of citizens” on the political future of Spain’s wealthy north-eastern region. Catalonia did not hold the independence referendum that had been planned as it was blocked by the Spanish Constitutional Court. The vote took place as the Spanish government and key political groups are facing heavy criticism for a series of corruption scandals.
October 28, 2014
The French economy has underperformed in recent years and is facing challenges to stimulate economic growth due to a loss of competitiveness and the fact that much-needed structural reforms have yet to be implemented. Nevertheless, the country may see a pick-up in economic activity next year, should President François Hollande’s government succeed in implementing reforms.15 when FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 1.0%.
September 18, 2014
In 2013, Mexico’s government passed a constitutional reform, for which a slew of new legislation is expected to be implemented in the coming months. The effort to overhaul the country’s oil and gas sector is among the most anticipated liberalization efforts on the region.
September 9, 2014
The Nicaraguan government announced plans to build an interoceanic canal last year, which, if realized, would provide a boost to the Nicaraguan economy and could pose an important competitive threat to the Panama Canal. Although constructing the so-called Nicaragua Canal is technically possible, doubts surrounding the economic feasibility, the environmental impact, and the capability of construction company HKND to manage this mega-project, have led many to question whether or not it will ever actually be constructed.
August 19, 2014
Earlier this year, many expert climatologists sounded alarm bells about the possibility of another devastating episode of the weather phenomenon known as El Niño. Peru is one of Latin America’s most vulnerable countries to the economic impacts of El Niño and the Peruvian government and investors in the region should be on high alert. In fact, Peru’s fishing industry, agricultural sector and domestic infrastructure have all been severely damaged by previous episodes, such as the catastrophic El Niño of 1997–1998.
August 7, 2014
Conflict in Ukraine has taken a drastic toll on the country and its economy. As the situation evolves, economists are continuously revising down their forecasts. See our timeline of key events in the conflict and the progression of FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast since the crisis began.
For more information and analysis on Ukraine’s Economy, visit: Ukraine Economic Outlook.
July 16, 2014
Let me start with this: if you haven’t read Nate Silver’s The signal and the noise then I suggest you go pick it up right away. For anybody who is interested in the business of forecasting, Silver’s book is a must read. Silver, a baseball analyst-turned political analyst-turned forecaster extraordinaire, gained notoriety when he correctly predicted the 2008 U.S. presidential election almost flawlessly. In his book, he discusses the intricacies of forecasting and the enormous challenges presented when one attempts to anticipate the future, applying rigorous analysis combined with large amounts of rationality and common sense.
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Elevated prices for fuel will continue to drive inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa, as transport accounts for a large… https://t.co/W2PGPPQgbg
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In this special survey of 120 analysts from leading institutions, we examine the inflation outlook for this year an… https://t.co/28LA6wzqYR
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