FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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Fertilizer prices are hammering farmers: What does that mean for agricultural prices?
February 11, 2022
Prices for fertilizers skyrocketed in 2021, with annual growth in U.S. fertilizer prices reaching nearly 80% year-on-year at the end of last year—the highest level since November 2008.
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400% growth in NFTs: A revolutionary technology or a bubble about to burst?
February 3, 2022
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are certificates of ownership for digital artwork. The certificates are registered on a blockchain, which is a digital record that cannot be changed or tampered with. People hold NFTs primarily to gain exclusive rights to digital pictures and videos and because they are status symbols. NFTs can then be sold on secondary markets, and—as last year proved—can fetch hefty returns for creators and sellers in the process.
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Going against the tide: China’s monetary stimulus efforts run contrary to those of other major central banks
January 28, 2022
The Chinese economy is currently grappling with numerous regulatory reforms, a bloated, debt-ridden property market, and a zero-tolerance approach to the pandemic, which continues to limit economic growth both domestically and in the region. As a result, over the past couple of months Chinese authorities have taken several measures to stimulate the economy, including a 50 basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio and a 15 basis-point cut to the one-year Loan Prime Rate. This comes as major central banks in developed markets look to roll back their stimulus measures to counter price pressures.
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The oil market bulls are back, but will the rally last?
January 25, 2022
Oil prices rebounded to over USD 80.0 per barrel in recent days, after fears regarding the impact of the Omicron variant on global demand sent prices freefalling in late November. Since then, concerns have faded just as a flare-up of a number of regional conflicts poses a threat to the supply outlook.
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From one crisis to another: Russia's economy can't catch its breath
January 13, 2022
Tensions between NATO and Russia have reached boiling point yet again in recent months, due to the country’s longstanding spat with Ukraine. Russia has surrounded the Ukrainian border with roughly 100,000 troops, forcing a bilateral meeting with the U.S. in Geneva this week in an attempt to deescalate tensions. The U.S. authorized significant military aid to Ukraine in December and has said it will levy fresh sanctions on the Kremlin if it invades. Although it still remains uncertain whether Putin will order an invasion, Russia appears to have made a significant investment, laying the ground work for a large-scale military operation.
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Finger on the trigger: Should central banks hold their fire?
December 23, 2021
The last couple of months have been a whirlwind in the central banking space, with a drastically more hawkish turn in mid-December from the Bank of England (BoE)—whose directors surprised market analysts by raising rates—which came hours before the Federal Reserve opted to speed up the tapering of its QE purchasing program and pencil in roughly three rate hikes for next year. Moreover, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also decided to wind down some of their stimulus measures in December, but both remained relatively dovish overall. This comes amid a number of smaller central banks dramatically hiking rates recently due to strengthening economic activity and elevated price pressures. This includes Brazil, Chile, Peru, Mexico, Uruguay, Colombia, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, Korea and Norway, to mention a few.
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A double-dip Brazilian recession: Could higher inflation and interest rates further dent momentum?
December 16, 2021
The Brazilian economy continues to grapple with a double whammy: Inflation hit a near six-year high in November, while interest rates have risen an unprecedented 725 basis points since the start of the year—with the latest and joint-largest hike in recent history delivered at the Central Bank’s meeting on 8 December. Rising price pressures and borrowing costs have hit consumers and businesses hard, and consequently GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q3, pushing the economy back into recession for the second time in just over a year.
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A tough road ahead: Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability
December 9, 2021
Recently, concerns about Sri Lanka’s external debt position have intensified, confirmed by a streak of downgrades by rating agencies. Moreover, external sector metrics have deteriorated, and the country’s latest six-month roadmap was met with some skepticism by the agencies. With the economy facing risks to macroeconomic stability, how prepared is Sri Lanka to meet the obstacles ahead?
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Omicron's economic impact: ominous or overblown?
December 7, 2021
Heightened uncertainty caused by the new Omicron variant is undermining consumer and business confidence around the world, due to the potential for another round of lockdowns and border restrictions.
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Not out of the woods yet: How will the latest Covid-19 wave affect the Euro area’s economy?
November 26, 2021
Over the past month, the Euro area has faced a severe outbreak of new Covid-19 cases. Regional heavyweight Germany logged a record 68,049 new cases on 23 November, while the Netherlands has also seen a record number of new cases in recent weeks. Central and Eastern Europe has been hit especially hard, with the region’s low vaccination rate placing significant pressure on local health systems.
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Featured Posts
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Why does Latin America have a growth problem?
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Why is OPEC struggling to raise oil output?
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Fed hikes rates: How high will rates go in 2022?
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The Euro area’s labor market: A bright spot on a gloomy horizon
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Are we heading for an emerging market debt crisis?
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Will the Fed’s rate hikes lead to a recession?
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Inflation: how high will it go?
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Why does Latin America have a growth problem? In our latest insight piece, we examine the factors holding back Lat… https://t.co/JXDjowxf86
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What's behind surging inflation forecasts in Latin America? #latinoamérica #latinamerica #latam #inflation… https://t.co/RVZU7MfuMb
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In July, commodity prices were hit hard by slowing GDP growth globally. Find out more: https://t.co/HvDwnW1Fc4… https://t.co/U6IvP2xCjM
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In our latest insight piece, we look at OPEC’s difficulties in meeting its oil production targets, and the outlook… https://t.co/wJVtavtSn4
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