FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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Covid impact on East Asia's GDP
March 25, 2022
China, Hong Kong and Korea have all experienced fresh waves of Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, which have resulted in tighter restrictions on mobility and renewed supply chain disruptions, clouding the countries’ respective economic outlooks and prospects for the region as a whole.
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How will LATAM fare amid the Russia-Ukraine war?
March 17, 2022
On the one hand, a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is expected to weigh on external demand as both countries’ economies implode and Euro area economic growth takes a hit, with higher energy prices and renewed supply chain disruptions set to stoke price pressures. On the other hand, surging commodity prices are set to benefit specific LATAM countries’ terms of trade, which could more than offset weaker external demand ahead.
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Iranian nuclear deal held hostage by Russia
March 10, 2022
In the West’s latest attempt to destabilize the Russian economy, officials looked to end an over three-year standoff between the U.S. and Iran to bring both parties back into the 2015 nuclear accord, which would lift restrictions on Iranian oil sales and therefore support Western economies’ shifts away from dependence on Russian oil. The nuclear deal was spoiled under the Trump administration in May 2018, for reasons not clearly understood by the UN nuclear watchdog at the time. After 11 months of negotiations, Iran and other major world powers were almost certain to sign off on an agreement that would have removed economic sanctions on Iran in the near future. However, Russia, a key signatory required to revive the 2015 agreement, vetoed the deal in its final stages, due to its demand that U.S. economic sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine not impede Russian-Iranian trade.
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Russia-Ukraine War Impact on Energy Prices
March 9, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has wreaked havoc on the global energy market. Russia is the second-largest producer of natural gas and the third-largest producer of crude oil globally, and fears of supply disruptions due to direct damage to pipelines and international sanctions, coupled with possible Russian retaliation, sent prices for energy commodities soaring. In turn, our panel of analysts revised their oil and gas forecasts upwards notably in early March.
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Sanctions leave Russian rouble routed
March 3, 2022
Following the devastating invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February, the international condemnation was quick to arrive, and the impacts were felt immediately.
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Burgeoning debt levels hammer growth prospects in SSA
February 24, 2022
The analysts we polled have grown more pessimistic regarding the outlook for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in recent months, with the 2022 GDP growth forecast for the region having been revised down 0.2 percentage points since December. As governments in the region take measures to mitigate the spread of Covid-19, increased spending and declining revenues lead to ballooning debts, weighing heavily on public budgets and limiting access to foreign capital. Moreover, heightened inflationary levels, unfavorable weather conditions dragging on agricultural output, and political turmoil have weighed further on revenues and fueled the precarious debt situation in the region in recent months.
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China and the world: a slow goodbye?
February 21, 2022
The 2008 Beijing Olympics was the event that thrust China well and truly onto the global stage. The spectacular opening ceremony—watched by billions around the world and held in the futuristic ‘bird’s nest’ stadium—was a powerful symbol of the nation at the time: confident, modern, outward-looking.
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Will Eastern Europe's auto industry survive the chip shortage?
February 17, 2022
When it comes to global vehicle production, the top three producers mainly steal the headlines as China, the U.S. and Japan account for over 50% of annual output. That being said, the auto industries in the three heavy hitters make up small proportions of their domestic economies. Consequently, the current supply chain issues impacting the auto sector are having much more pronounced impacts in those economies that depend strongly on the auto industry.
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Top 5 ways climate change could impact economic activity in the coming decades
February 15, 2022
Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, cold snaps, storms and wildfires are likely to become increasingly common over the next few years due to climate change, potentially causing significant human casualties and economic damage in the process. Here are the five major likely economic impacts of an increasingly volatile climate:
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Fertilizer prices are hammering farmers: What does that mean for agricultural prices?
February 11, 2022
Prices for fertilizers skyrocketed in 2021, with annual growth in U.S. fertilizer prices reaching nearly 80% year-on-year at the end of last year—the highest level since November 2008.
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Featured Posts
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Why is OPEC struggling to raise oil output?
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Inflation: how high will it go?
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Euro area prospects grow bleaker: Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
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In July, commodity prices were hit hard by slowing GDP growth globally. Find out more: https://t.co/HvDwnW1Fc4… https://t.co/U6IvP2xCjM
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