What to expect in Asia for 2017
Click on the image to open a larger version
ASEAN: Activity to moderate in 2017
This year, developments in the external sector and global politics will continue to influence ASEAN’s growth story. The policy decisions of a more protectionist U.S. under President Donald Trump have the potential to reverberate throughout the region. Trump’s decision on 23 January to pull out from the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has created uncertainty over the future of the deal, which was seen as particularly beneficial for Vietnam’s economy. At this stage, it is unclear whether the agreement will move forward without the U.S. or if a new alliance could take its place. Brexit will also continue to play a role in ASEAN’s growth story as Singapore is particularly exposed to the potential fallout. Domestically, the timing of elections in Malaysia and Thailand will continue to be monitored, and early votes could take center stage.
Economic dynamics are expected to weaken slightly this year on slower growth in Singapore and the Philippines. The FocusEconomics panel sees the ASEAN region growing 4.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Reduced headwinds from less monetary and fiscal stimulus will limit the economy’s momentum, but domestic demand should still remain solid overall. In 2018, the ASEAN economy is seen growing 4.9%.
This month’s 2017 growth forecast reflects a sizeable downward revision to Myanmar’s economic outlook. Estimates for 7 of the 10 economies in the region, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, were left unchanged. The only economies to see brighter prospects were Brunei and the Philippines.
Growth trends are expected to be divergent in the region. The Philippines and Vietnam will be among the top performers, with projected expansions of 6.4%. On the other side of the spectrum, Singapore will grow a slow 1.6% as the country is highly vulnerable to global events and is facing a cooling property market. Our panel of economists sees regional giant Indonesia expanding a healthy 5.2%, while Malaysia should grow 4.3%.
East & South Asia: Risks to 2017 economic outlook appear balanced
This year, the ESA economy is expected to perform at a similar pace to that of in 2016. China’s ongoing economic transition, which entails weaker but more sustainable growth, will be compensated for by stronger economic dynamics in most countries in the region. The main exception will be Korea, as the country is immersed in a deep political crisis that is gradually feeding into the real economy. However, more dark clouds are gathering on the horizon. Uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies are the main downside risk to growth, in particular due to threats from the U.S. administration to impose a tariff on Chinese goods, which could cause a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Furthermore, a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States has the potential to heighten financial volatility in the region.
There are, however, some silver linings amidst the gloom. The expected fiscal stimulus plan in the United States, coupled with bold government support in China, bodes well for growth in the region. Moreover, the pick-up in inflation is expected to be limited, giving central banks in the region leeway to keep their monetary policies accommodative.
After expanding 6.1% in 2016, the ESA economy is seen growing at a broadly steady rate of 6.0% in 2017—unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, GDP is seen expanding at a slower pace of 5.8%.
This month’s outlook for 2017 reflects unchanged growth prospects for six of the nine economies surveyed, including the region’s powerhouse China. Projections for India, Korea and Sri Lanka were downgraded.
India and Bangladesh are expected to be the region’s fastest-growing economies in 2017 with increases of 7.4% and 6.8% respectively, followed by China, with a 6.4% expansion. At the other end of the spectrum, Hong Kong, Mongolia and Taiwan are projected to be the slowest-growing economies, with growth rates below 2.0%. Korea’s economy is seen expanding 2.4% in 2017.
5-year economic forecasts on 30+ economic indicators for 127 countries & 33 commodities.
Date: January 25, 2017
TagsEconomic Growth (GDP) Greece Brexit Canada Australia Nordic Economies United States Banking Sector Iran Housing Market European Union Tunisia Agricultural Commodities USA Asia Trade Major Economies Portugal South Africa Fed Industrial Metals Commodities Forex Consensus Forecast Panelists Investment G7 Mexico Japan Sub-Saharan Africa OPEC Gold Oil Emerging Markets IMF Unemployment rate Argentina Ukraine Latin America Brazil oil prices Precious Metals Commodities Colombia Company News UK India Base Metals Commodities Inflation Infographic Spain Eastern Europe Turkey World Bank Germany MENA France Italy Russia Euro Area Financial Sector Vietnam precious metals Commodities China Africa Exchange Rate Energy Commodities Venezuela
5 minutes ago
7 minutes ago
21 minutes ago
22 minutes ago
44 minutes ago
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit