Blog posts tagged by tag: Italy
After a year characterized by Brexit, a migrant crisis, populist movements and the election of Donald Trump, uncertainty in the European Union economy is high. While economic data has remained resilient thus far, politics will likely stay in the spotlight this year and threaten confidence as a number of high profile economies hold elections, including France, Germany, The Netherlands and Italy. In a context of waning support for the status quo and recent election polls failing to predict results, Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis takes a look at the upcoming votes we are keeping an eye on and why.
Italy's and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional referendum was met with a resounding ‘no’ on Sunday.
The referendum was aimed at greatly simplifying the currently cumbersome relationship between the two chambers of Italian parliament to ultimately create a more efficient decision-making system and boost competitiveness. However, Beppe Grillo and his populist anti-EU Five Star Movement, was critical in delivering the ‘no’ vote, which highlights the continent’s rising tide of populism.
The outcome of the referendum marked the beginning of a very important year for the European Union and could, in the very worst case scenario, lead to the demise of the common currency bloc.
Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
After dragging Greece kicking and screaming through a never-ending vicious cycle of fiscal adjustment and output decline, the European Commission seems to be softening in its attitude towards other struggling Eurozone economies. France, Italy, Portugal and Spain, among others, have all repeatedly been given extensions to reduce their debt and deficit levels after recurrent breaches of EU targets have gone unpunished, and the trend looks set to continue as our forecasts show that those economies will underperform again this year and next. Does this mark a shift in mindset within the Commission as to whether the Growth and Stability Pact is fit for purpose? Or rather just tactical maneuvering—or indeed resigned acceptance—in tough political times, as the EU faces unprecedented challenges to its legitimacy and survival?
The European Union is facing an unprecedented amount of uncertainty. Brexit, a migrant crisis, elevated security concerns, a slowdown in China and unpredictable elections in the United States are all threatening the Union’s economic and political outlook. On top of this, members within the Union are facing a jam-packed election cycle. In a context of waning support for the status quo, this could lead to shifts in the balance of power. Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis takes a look at the upcoming votes we are keeping an eye on and why.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Euro Area totaled EUR 10,404 billion in 2015 and is expected to total EUR 10,607 billion by the end of this year. Analysts expect the Eurozone economy to grow a healthy 1.5% this year and 1.6% in 2017. However, the Eurozone is still facing a number of challenges and performing below its potential. High debt levels, a fragile banking sector and a persistent lack of inflationary pressure continues to impede the recovery of many economies in the region.
See below what analysts expect the GDP of each of the Euro Area countries to be by the end of 2016 (hover over the bubbles for more information):
50 analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect Eurozone unemployment rate to average 10.4% this year:
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