Blog posts tagged by tag: European Union
”If I cannot have you the way I want you, I do not want you at all” Dr. Feelgood
Brexit has been launched. Mainstream consensus is going through the typical phases of anger (“this cannot be”), shock (“only uneducated, old, and fascists have voted exit”), denial (“it will be stopped by parliament or the commons”) and now we approach, slowly, to the phase of acceptance.
And there it is: Article 50.
*Guest blog post from El Blog Salmón
60 years ago the seed of the European Union was sown, these are the economic milestones that have taken place since…
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal VVD party has won again despite losing seats, keeping the far right in a largely ineffectual position. The Netherlands is one of Europe’s best performing economies, which surely helped see reason ultimately triumph over populism after a campaign dominated by much political noise from Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party. And yet voters still punished the outgoing coalition heavily. Rutte’s party lost about a quarter of its support and its traditional coalition partner all but collapsed, with the Green-Left party making substantial gains to emerge as an unexpected victor of the night and a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations. On the face of it the Dutch economy is doing remarkably well, yet voters were clearly not entirely happy with the political status quo. While the Liberals do battle behind the scenes to form a working majority in the fragmented Dutch parliament, we take a look at the economic situation that the new government will inherit.
After a year characterized by Brexit, a migrant crisis, populist movements and the election of Donald Trump, uncertainty in the European Union economy is high. While economic data has remained resilient thus far, politics will likely stay in the spotlight this year and threaten confidence as a number of high profile economies hold elections, including France, Germany, The Netherlands and Italy. In a context of waning support for the status quo and recent election polls failing to predict results, Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis takes a look at the upcoming votes we are keeping an eye on and why.
Italy's and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional referendum was met with a resounding ‘no’ on Sunday.
The referendum was aimed at greatly simplifying the currently cumbersome relationship between the two chambers of Italian parliament to ultimately create a more efficient decision-making system and boost competitiveness. However, Beppe Grillo and his populist anti-EU Five Star Movement, was critical in delivering the ‘no’ vote, which highlights the continent’s rising tide of populism.
The outcome of the referendum marked the beginning of a very important year for the European Union and could, in the very worst case scenario, lead to the demise of the common currency bloc.
The European Union is facing an unprecedented amount of uncertainty. Brexit, a migrant crisis, elevated security concerns, a slowdown in China and unpredictable elections in the United States are all threatening the Union’s economic and political outlook. On top of this, members within the Union are facing a jam-packed election cycle. In a context of waning support for the status quo, this could lead to shifts in the balance of power. Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis takes a look at the upcoming votes we are keeping an eye on and why.
It’s been a little over a month since the UK voted to leave the European Union in one of the biggest and most unexpected political events to happen since the turn of the century and arguably going back even farther than that. Apart from the political shakeup this has caused, the impact of the Brexit has far reaching economic consequences as well. We here at FocusEconomics, needless to say, have been working tirelessly to bring you forecasts and analysis for the UK economy and the rest of the world since the unprecedented Brexit vote.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote we came out with new post-Brexit forecasts and analysis for the UK economy and a few weeks later we had a revised set of forecasts for the UK. Subsequently, we updated or forecasts and analysis with Brexit in mind for Latin America, the ASEAN region, East & South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Finally, without further ado, we have the all-important post-Brexit forecasts and outlook for the Eurozone economy. In the following post we present you with our updated forecasts and analysis for the Eurozone along with comments and individual forecasts from the likes of Danske Bank and BNP Paribas. We also have additional analysis on the Euro Area and our Global Economic Outlook, in case you’re interested in further reading.
2017 is shaping up to be a tough year for the UK post-Brexit. Economic analysts are projecting the economy to decelerate substantially to just 0.3% growth, fixed investment is seen falling drastically, exports are expected to plummet, the pound has taken quite a tumble... and that's just the beginning. Have a look at the latest forecasts for the UK:
Click the infographic to open a full-sized version
The EU Referendum results came as a shock to many last week with the immediate effects having reverberated across Europe and the world impacting global financial markets heavily. The immediate effects of the so-called ‘Brexit’ have been widely reported, however, what remains to be seen is the economic impact of the Brexit in the longer-term. That, of course, is still unknown, but the media consensus to date seems to be that the future of the UK’s economy is bleak.
Needless to say, we here at FocusEconomics have had a lot of work over the last few days since the UK voted to leave the EU last Thursday. We have frantically contacted our global network of economic analysts, investment banks, and think tanks to collect their updated forecasts in the wake of the Brexit vote. Luckily, we were able to collect quite a few to compile an up-to-date post-Brexit Consensus Forecast for the UK. Some of our analysts were also generous enough to gives a few quotes with their views on the situation.
Give this blog post a read through to get some of the highlights of our Brexit Economic Impact report where we detail the effect the Brexit has had on UK GDP growth forecasts accompanied by comments from leading economic institutions.
Also, don’t forget to have a look at our UK economic outlook page and our global economic outlook page for up-to-date economic data and analysis post-Brexit. Get a copy of our UK after the Brexit report here.
Click the infographic to open a full-sized version
Greece’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and uncertainty over the country’s debt negotiations with international creditors. In January, FocusEconomics Consensus Panelists expected that the economy would record a second consecutive year of growth in 2015, forecasting a 2.0% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of surprisingly positive economic data emerging from the indebted nation. Specifically, Q3 2014’s 1.9% annual expansion, which had marked the fastest pace of growth in over six years, suggested that the economy’s recovery was gaining traction and caused panelists to raise their forecast in January.
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