Blog posts tagged by tag: Consensus Forecast
“A centrally planned economy could never match the efficiency of the open market because what is known by a single agent is only a small fraction of the sum total of knowledge held by all members of society.”
- F.A. Hayek, Economist, and Philosopher
When you think about economic forecasting, you can think of the quote above as analogy – in a “centrally planned economy,” the planning agency can be thought of as an individual forecast and the “open market” as a multiple-source forecast. The Consensus Forecast, however, is the market price in as much as it reflects all of the knowledge available.
2017 is shaping up to be a tough year for the UK post-Brexit. Economic analysts are projecting the economy to decelerate substantially to just 0.3% growth, fixed investment is seen falling drastically, exports are expected to plummet, the pound has taken quite a tumble... and that's just the beginning. Have a look at the latest forecasts for the UK:
Click the infographic to open a full-sized version
How do the freshly-released IMF GDP growth forecasts compare to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
The IMF has just released its biannual World Economic Outlook. Sharp downgrades were made to its growth forecasts for emerging economies, especially Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa and Russia. See how the IMF 2015 GDP growth forecasts compare to the latest consensus forecasts from the FocusEconomics’ network of the world’s leading economists.
Click the image below to enlarge
Let me start with this: if you haven’t read Nate Silver’s The signal and the noise then I suggest you go pick it up right away. For anybody who is interested in the business of forecasting, Silver’s book is a must read. Silver, a baseball analyst-turned political analyst-turned forecaster extraordinaire, gained notoriety when he correctly predicted the 2008 U.S. presidential election almost flawlessly. In his book, he discusses the intricacies of forecasting and the enormous challenges presented when one attempts to anticipate the future, applying rigorous analysis combined with large amounts of rationality and common sense.
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