Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
GDP should grow more sharply this year than last. The region’s oil sector should come closer to stabilizing after contracting in 2023, and the non-oil sector should steam ahead as governments in the Gulf press ahead with plans for economic diversification. Downside risks include an escalation of the Gaza war and the extension of voluntary cuts to oil output into H2.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation will continue to differ markedly across the region in 2024. It will be low in the Gulf, Israel and Jordan, moderate in most of North Africa and high in Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen. That said, most countries in the region should see lower inflation than last year. Currency devaluations and food-price spikes are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -9.8 | -3.0 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.1 | 56.8 | 52.5 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.5 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 9.4 | - |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.17 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 5.81 | 6.76 |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 126 | 123 | 114 | 119 | 203 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -0.9 | 4.7 | - | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,902 | 7,007 | 8,236 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | -3.2 | 4.9 | - | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 1.4 | -7.1 | - | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.8 | -4.9 | 4.2 | 8.0 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,088 | 838 | 1,173 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 869 | 767 | 889 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,053 | 1,034 | 1,116 | 1,147 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 30.3 | 34.4 | 32.8 | - | - |